The 2025 Oscars are rapidly approaching, and the 10 Best Picture nominees have now been made official, leaving us to predict which will win. As surprising nominees and winners at the 2024 Oscars proved, the 2025 awards season has been filled with plenty of unexpected developments, too. A movie like Anora has maintained its place as a major contender in the category, while Emilia Pérez emerged as an undeniable contender in all Oscars 2025 categories. The latter is in rare company considering it secured 13 nominations for the 2025 ceremony, the most for any title.
Now that the 2025 Oscar nominations are confirmed in every category, the Best Picture lineup is locked in. The films contending for the biggest prize at the 97th Academy Awards, which will be held on March 2, 2025, are Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, I’m Still Here, Nickel Boys, The Substance, and Wicked. Many of these films were expected to have a spot in the lineup thanks to precursor wins and nominations. But as the final ceremony approaches and more Oscars controversies mount, only one can be the predicted winner.
Best Picture 2025 Oscars Lineup |
|||
---|---|---|---|
Movie |
Studio |
Producers |
|
1 |
Anora |
Neon |
Alex Coco, Samantha Quan and Sean Baker |
2 |
The Brutalist |
A24 |
Nick Gordon, Brian Young, Andrew Morrison, D.J. Gugenheim and Brady Corbet |
3 |
Conclave |
Focus Features |
Tessa Ross, Juliette Howell and Michael A. Jackman |
4 |
A Complete Unknown |
Searchlight Pictures |
Fred Berger, James Mangold and Alex Heineman |
5 |
Wicked |
Universal Pictures |
Marc Platt |
6 |
Emilia Pérez |
Netflix |
Pascal Caucheteux and Jacques Audiard |
7 |
The Substance |
Mubi |
Coralie Fargeat and Tim Bevan & Eric Fellner |
8 |
Dune: Part Two |
Warner Bros. |
Mary Parent, Cale Boyter, Tanya Lapointe and Denis Villeneuve |
9 |
I’m Still Here |
Sony Classics |
Maria Carlota Bruno and Rodrigo Teixeira |
10 |
Nickel Boys |
Amazon MGM |
Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner and Joslyn Barnes |
10
Nickel Boys
2 Oscar Nominations
Nickel Boys
- Release Date
-
January 3, 2025
- Runtime
-
140 Minutes
Amazon MGM pushed for Nickel Boys to get more into the awards conversation ahead of the Oscars. The strategy worked as RaMell Ross and Joseyln Barnes’ script got a nomination for Best Adapted Screenplay. This marks its only other nomination outside of Best Picture. With the powerful nature of the story inspired by real history, some great performances by the cast, and excellent technical work from the crew, Nickel Boys‘ Best Picture nomination is an opportunity to recognize all aspects of the film.
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In terms of precursors for the nomination, Nickel Boys had Critics’ Choice Awards, Golden Globes, Gotham Awards, Independent Film Spirit Awards, and Satellite Awards nominations for the equivalent of Best Picture. It even won Best Picture with the National Society of Critics. That’s a lot of love for Amazon MGM’s small budget drama and gave it enough momentum to get into the 2025 Oscars Best Picture race.
There is little roadmap toward a Best Picture win for Nickel Boys, though. There’s only ever been two Best Picture winning movies with two or fewer Oscar nominations overall. Those two films are Wings and Grand Hotel, and they both came out nearly 100 years ago. Not having much attention elsewhere may have allowed these films to get wins decades ago, but modern Oscars history suggests a film needs multiple other nominations and at least one other win to get Best Picture. Barring a surprise Adapted Screenplay win, Nickel Boys is at the back of the pack.
9
I’m Still Here
3 Oscar Nominations
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I’m Still Here
- Release Date
-
November 20, 2024
- Runtime
-
137 Minutes
-
Fernanda Torres
Eunice Paiva
-
Selton Mello
Rubens Paiva
Brazil’s entry for Best International Feature Film surprised on Oscar nomination morning with a spot in Best Picture, too. I’m Still Here performed about as well as Sony Classics could have hoped for, with Fernanda Torres also getting into Best Actress. The movie earned three Oscar nominations as a result. It’s perhaps not all that surprising that I’m Still Here got in considering the Academy’s voting body has become more international over the last few years. I’m Still Here joins Anatomy of a Fall, Triangle of Sadness, and Drive My Car as recent international Best Picture nominees.
The acclaim and awards potential of I’m Still Here was also clear from the moment it debuted at the Venice International Film Festival. It got a Golden Lion nomination, which is the festival’s highest prize. The movie understandably did well with Brazillian critics and awards groups, but the nominations from the Golden Globes, National Board of Review, Critics’ Choice Awards, and BAFTA Awards all gave it momentum. Fernanda Torres’ Golden Globes win may have helped push it over the top to get into Best Picture.
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The odds are low that I’m Still Here will win Best Picture unless Sony crafts a masterful campaign over the final few weeks. International films have done better in the category in recent years, with Parasite‘s win the most notable. However, I’m Still Here‘s Best Picture nomination is not alone in terms of non-English contenders this year. It will take a groundswell of support for the Brazil drama to really become a contender to win.
8
Dune: Part Two
5 Oscar Nominations
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Dune: Part Two
- Release Date
-
February 27, 2024
- Runtime
-
167 minutes
History was on Dune: Part Two‘s side to receive a Best Picture Oscar nomination in 2025, and that it did. Villeneuve’s original movie received a nomination in 2022, but it did not win. His sci-fi film Arrival also got a Best Picture nomination. With the Academy Awards voting body clear fans of his work, Dune 2 gets into the 2025 Best Picture race after arguably surpassing what he did in the first film. It’s one of five Oscar nominations for the sequel, all of which come in below-the-line categories after Villeneuve missed in Best Director again.
Dune 2 had good reason to believe that it would be in the Best Picture mix. It had a Best Motion Picture – Drama nomination from the Golden Globes, which it lost. It also fell short at Critics Choice Awards, PGA, and Satellite Awards. Dune 2 was not expected to win in any of those ceremonies by that point, and the same is true of its Best Picture chances now. The sequel may ultimately win a few below-the-line categories, but that’s it.
The lower odds for Dune 2 to win Best Picture are not a mark against the film’s quality. It was one of the best movies of 2024, and this nomination reflects that. The Academy may want to give Dune the Lord of the Rings treatment where the majority of its wins come with the conclusion of the trilogy. That’s a knock against Dune 2. And that might be a mistake as Dune 3 may prove to be a less awards-friendly installment.
7
The Substance
5 Oscar Nominations
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The Substance
- Release Date
-
September 20, 2024
- Runtime
-
140 Minutes
The Substance is the biggest winner of the awards season, as Coralie Fargeat and Demi Moore’s body horror film about Hollywood and beauty has become a central part of the conversation. This includes the Best Picture nomination it has now secured. Fargeat earned a Best Director nomination, and Moore is viewed as the favorite to win Best Actress now. Throw in the film’s contention in Makeup & Hairstyling and Original Screenplay, and it has the necessary backing to be a Best Picture contender.
Several precursors were pointing to The Substance earning a nomination here. It was among the ten nominees at the PGAs, and the film also earned recognition at the Golden Globes for Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy. With its strong critical approval, surprise box office success, and its continued staying power through the season, The Substance is a longshot to win Best Picture – but a nomination is a win in and of itself.
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Although The Substance‘s Oscars performance is a feel-good story, there is not a good track record with horror movies in this category. This is only the seventh horror movie nominated for Best Picture. Only one, 1991’s The Silence of the Lambs, went on to win. Even with the Academy becoming more willing to acknowledge out-of-the-box genre fare like The Shape of Water or Everything Everywhere All At Once in recent years, it’s still unlikely The Substance takes home the biggest award.
6
Emilia Pérez
13 Oscar Nominations
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Emilia Perez
- Release Date
-
November 13, 2024
- Runtime
-
130 Minutes
Emilia Pérez looked like the Best Picture winner following the announcement of the Oscar nominations and how awards season has played out. The initial acclaim for the film out of Cannes led to it becoming the winner of the Jury Prize, earning a Palme d’Or nomination, and the main four actresses splitting Best Actress. Even though the general reception to Emilia Pérez has been a bit more mixed – or even negative with the majority of casual audiences, that has not stopped the boundary-pushing musical drama from becoming one of the biggest Oscar contenders ever.
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While voters clearly had an affinity for the film based on Emilia Perez‘s 13 Oscar nominations making it the most nominated movie of 2025, everything that’s come after was unexpected. Insensitive tweets from star Karla Sofía Gascón resurfaced online and sparked new controversy around the film. The fallout has been disastrous for the film, as Netflix has worked to refigure the awards campaign without its lead star, and the public statements Gascón has made have not always helped the situation.
Netflix, Audiard, and others associated with the film have had to distance themselves from Gascón, and that leaves voters in a spot where they could do the same. While the ballots are not public and there is still work done in Emilia Pérez that is worth celebrating, the optics of selecting this as the best movie of the year for the Oscars are not great, and it would result in some awkward moments for sure. The movie could still find victories in other categories, like Best Supporting Actress, but its Best Picture chances have dipped substantially.
It’s a somewhat surprising turn for a movie that already performed well before the Oscars ceremony. It was the runner-up for the People’s Choice Award at TIFF and won Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy at the Golden Globes. Emilia Pérez also got BAFTA, PGA, Critics’ Choice, and SAG nominations, but it fell short at Critics Choice and PGA already. Perhaps this is ultimately where the movie would have wound up without the controversies based on how divisive the film itself is with viewers.
5
Wicked
10 Oscar Nominations
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Wicked
- Release Date
-
November 22, 2024
- Runtime
-
160 Minutes
Wicked burst onto the scene as a very real Oscars contender in many categories, including Best Picture. The 2024 adaptation of the first half of the acclaimed Broadway musical garnered nearly universal praise from critics and audiences alike. Wicked is one of the biggest crowd-pleasers of the year, not to mention one of the biggest box office performers. With its impressive musical numbers, costumes, production, and stellar performances from Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande, Wicked earned 10 nominations, including a Best Picture nomination.
Musicals do not have the best history of winning Best Picture, but that could be different this year. Wicked is already surprising with its precursor wins, most notably with its Best Film win from the National Board of Review. The movie arguably needed to win the Golden Globe for Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy to really start mounting its case to win Best Picture, which it did not. It still had a chance to win at the PGA Awards, but it lost to Anora.
A win for Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture at SAG Awards could help boost its case, but that wouldn’t necessarily be an indicator it is winning Best Picture. While that category can be predictive for Best Picture in some years, it was only a few years ago that Black Panther won at SAG, creating a suggestion that it could win at the Oscars too. Wicked winning at SAG would be a huge accomplishment, but that wouldn’t be enough to push it to the top of the Best Picture race.
The odds are stacked against Wicked winning Best Picture right now. There is another musical in a stronger spot to win this year. The plan for Wicked: For Good to release later this year and contend for the 2026 Oscars may also leave voters with a feeling they can wait another year and give the sequel a Best Picture win.
4
A Complete Unknown
8 Oscar Nominations
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A Complete Unknown
- Release Date
-
December 25, 2024
- Runtime
-
140 minutes
James Mangold’s Bob Dylan biopic A Complete Unknown is a major contender for the 2025 Oscars Best Picture race. Starring Timothée Chalamet as the iconic musician, the movie joins the list of music biopics that received Best Picture nominations. The Academy shows plenty of favor to true stories, especially those that revolve around massive pop culture figures and have the kind of star power in front of and behind the camera as A Complete Unknown. That’s clearly happened again with A Complete Unknown‘s eight nominations giving it a higher tally than expected.
James Mangold previously got a Best Picture nomination for a true story movie with Ford v. Ferrari
Searchlight put its full strength behind A Complete Unknown upon its late-season release, and it paid off. The movie may have already lost at the Golden Globes, and it got nominations at BAFTA, Critics’ Choice, PGA, and SAG that could help its chances. However, it didn’t win at Critics Choice or PGA. The appreciation for the film from Academy voters was evident when James Mangold got in the Best Director mix too.
If A Complete Unknown wants to win Best Picture, it arguably needs Timothée Chalamet to win Best Actor too. He’s in a tight race, but the electric performance and crowd-pleasing nature of the biopic could really help the Bob Dylan movie overperform. There is definitely a world where A Complete Unknown takes home some below-the-line categories and Best Actor, and a solid placement on most voters’ ballots may be what it needs then to edge out some other contenders.
3
Conclave
8 Oscar Nominations
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Conclave
- Release Date
-
October 25, 2024
- Runtime
-
120 Minutes
Based on the best-selling novel by author Robert Harris, Conclave combines a stacked cast with a gripping story – creating the ideal Best Picture formula. Featuring the likes of Ralph Fiennes, Stanley Tucci, John Lithgow, and Isabella Rossellini, the movie concerns a Papal election and an intriguing mystery. Not only does the talent aligned in front of the camera contain multiple Academy Award nominees, but Conclave is also directed by Academy Award-winner Edward Berger, whose previous project, All Quiet On The Western Front, won the Best International Feature Film award in 2023.
The drama looks to be in a good position to possibly win Best Picture. It’s an old-fashioned drama-thriller that has racked up necessary nominations at the Golden Globes, PGA, BAFTA, and more. With eight nominations across the board, Conclave is in the top half for total number of nominations between the Best Picture nominees. It’s in a good position to win Adapted Screenplay and possibly some other technical categories, which could help its case. The biggest boost would come from Fiennes emerging and winning the 2025 Best Actor Oscar.
There are arguments to be made against Conclave winning Best Picture, such as Berger’s surprising omission from the Best Director nominees. That’s a big deal considering only six films have won Best Picture without a Best Director nomination. Furthermore, Focus Features has never won the Best Picture Oscar despite 12 previous nominations. This would mean Conclave would need to make history in order to win the category.
2
The Brutalist
10 Oscar Nominations
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The Brutalist
- Release Date
-
December 20, 2024
- Runtime
-
215 Minutes
The Brutalist is a major contender for the Best Picture Oscar in 2025. The three-and-a-half-hour historical epic left a major impression on audiences following its premiere at Venice and subsequent showings at Toronto. It was enough to get A24 to acquire the project, which hails from director Brady Corbet and stars Oscar-winner Adrien Brody and Oscar-nominee Felicity Jones, and give it a late December 2024 release date. Following its late season release, The Brutalist got 10 Oscar nominations, tied for the second most of any film this year.
The Brutalist has the necessary resume to win Best Picture, making it a legitimate contender. It’s already won the Golden Globe for Best Motion Picture – Drama. But after losing at Critics Choice, BAFTA is its last major chance to gain some steam. Oscar voters really helped the film’s case with nominations in Director, Actor, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, and Editing, along with Score, Cinematography, and Production Design. The Brutalist‘s position as a strong contender to win Director, Actor, Screenplay, and Editing only helps its Best Picture chances.
Unfortunately, there is also the variable of The Brutalist‘s AI controversy. Panic about how the film implemented AI and the general opposition most of Hollywood, especially actors, have toward the technology could severely hurt the film. Its epic runtime already was working against it to some degree, but now there may be a bigger reason for voters not to want it to win. The Brutalist will have to get voters comfortable with its use of AI if it is going to win Best Picture.
1
Anora
6 Oscar Nominations
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Anora
- Release Date
-
October 18, 2024
- Runtime
-
139 Minutes
From the moment it debuted at Cannes 2024, Anora became the frontrunner for the Oscars and a heavily predicted Best Picture winner. An atypical romance that shines a light on the world of sex work, Anora has enjoyed critical acclaim – receiving a 10-minute standing ovation from festival-goers after its premiere. Given this reaction, it’s unsurprising that the movie won the 2024 Palme d’Or. This success positioned the film to continue riding high once Neon boarded the film as a distributor and awards campaign partner.
Neon has a solid track record with the Oscars, including helping push Parasite to be the Best Picture winner in 2020 after it also was the Palme d’Or winner. The studio has given Anora a strong campaign throughout the awards season, culminating in it earning six Oscar nominations. It’s already been recognized by the Golden Globes, NBR, Gotham Awards, Film Independent Spirit Awards, AFI, PGA, and plenty of critics groups. All the awards Anora has won speak for itself.
Anora was the presumed favorite to win and after appearing to have peaked too early, it’s rebounded incredibly well down the stretch. Even after its shutout at the Golden Globes and Mikey Madison losing ground to Demi Moore for Best Actress, Anora has now won at PGA, DGA, Critics Choice, and more. The PGA win is especially important in solidifying Anora as the Best Picture frontrunner. 12 of the last 15 Best Picture winners also won at PGA, so that puts Sean Baker’s movie in a great position to win it all.
Furthermore, it should help Anora‘s case that the Oscars use a preferential ballot for this category. In a year with some divisive Best Picture contenders, there are not many who hate Sean Baker’s film. If it’s consistently second or third on ballots, it could have emerged victorious through the division. Now that its shifted back into the frontrunner, Anora could be an easy Best Picture winner at the Oscars.